The collection and use of data is the first step in learning how to avoid future outbreaks.
The whole world is worried about contracting Covid-19 (Coronavirus) and WHO (the World Health Organization) has declared a global pandemic. To track the virus, you can use this data visualization tool developed by Johns Hopkins University. It collects data on the known Coronavirus cases on every continent.The database monitors new cases of the virus, and reports the number of people who have recovered. Moreover, it allows you to see the number of confirmed cases, recoveries, and deaths by region.
In comparison to SARS, Ebola, and even the flu, the death toll is still statistically low. However, the issue with Covid-19 is that there is a chance it can become as widespread as the flu, and the statistical outlook for a number of countries is very troublesome. Currently the best case scenario based on available data is that at least one hundred thousand people in the United States will die from the disease. An important question to ask is if data can help us stop outbreaks like this.
Data is important. Artificial Intelligence knew that Wuhan had a virus outbreak before the Chinese government.
What makes Covid-19 scary is that it is an airborne illness that appears to be out of control. To date there is no working vaccine. In the case of health, unknowns can be the difference between life and death therefore the more data we can look at the better. Covid-19 is a global case study for adopting machine learning to help us predict and mitigate concerning trends in health.
Two weeks before the Chinese government reported the outbreak, Artificial Intelligence in Canada predicted there was an epidemic brewing in Wuhan. China has already started rewriting the narrative on how this virus spread but comparatively, their containment, driven by data, led them to slow the spread. The question then becomes, how can we use global data to force quicker reaction times from the powers that be?
Covid-19 is an excellent opportunity for international governments to learn to work together, and to become more prepared for epidemics that affect us on a global scale. The ability to streamline resources, quarantine the infected and stop the spread of diseases before they become pandemics lies in the ability to predict an outbreak and contain it as soon as possible. This is made possible with the data processing capabilities of neural networks and having access to large amounts of data. Health data sharing should be embraced.
Had the Chinese government heeded the outside warning, it may have been easier to control the outbreak. As a matter of fact, the Canadian company successfully predicted where the virus would turn up next. The ability for machines to help humans in crises depends on government and humans opting in and trusting machine learning. However we must also share data and solutions to infectious disease. We are only as healthy as our neighbour.
Johns Hopkins University’s pooling of data resources may tell us where to focus efforts now, but the predictive qualities of data are much more important. Unfortunately, in the case of this Corona Virus it has become increasingly clear that we will not contain the spread of Covid-19.
Covid-19 is becoming a global pandemic. Using the proper data to inform human behaviour can help us ensure that this does not become the 1918 Influenza Pandemic or the HIV Pandemic.
It was known weeks ago that this virus would likely spread, In the Atlantic article, You are Likely to Get the Corona Virus by Dr. James Hablin, he quotes Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch as saying, “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
Hablin explains further:
Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care.
This probably does nothing to help your overwrought friend feel better as unknowns are built into the disease itself. Hamblin continues:
With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways.
A virus that shows no symptoms in some has an easier chance of spreading.
Vaccine development also benefits from Open Sourced Data.
Hamblin also suggests that the open sharing of information, creates a better chance of finding a vaccine. A good financing model has been created by the CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness). Vaccines cost a lot of money to make and many big companies go bankrupt in the process. Scientists do not know when there will be a vaccine. Although, one researcher in China has synthesized an oral dose vaccine, and a small biotech startup Inovio has promising results. Even so, an accelerated timeline would still look like 12 to 18 months because there needs to be extensive tests done to verify that the vaccine prevents the spread of disease and is safe for human consumption. Above all, your best bet is to take care of your health and demand that governments remain open to exchange and take advantage of the data.
What can you do to prevent further outbreak of the Covid-19 Corona Virus?
Obviously, if you are older, sick or have older/ill relatives in affected countries, there are reasons to be concerned. The disease has a much a higher mortality rate in the elderly, people with heart problems, diabetes, and respiratory problems. The first thing you should do if you are lucky enough to do so is stay home and relax. The Coronavirus is not a death sentence and countries are working diligently to control the outbreak. Second, try reading the WHO website recommendations.
Above all, don’t meet up with people unnecessarily, and if you must go out for essentials, make sure you are social distancing.
Remaining open sourced to fight Corona Virus.
Covid-19 may have already become a regular part of our life, time will tell. But, as Dr. Jame’s Hamblin wrote in his article:
“Certain containment measures will be appropriate, but widely banning travel, closing down cities, and hoarding resources are not realistic solutions for an outbreak that lasts years. All of these measures come with risks of their own. Ultimately some pandemic responses will require opening borders, not closing them. At some point the expectation that any area will escape effects of COVID-19 must be abandoned: The disease must be seen as everyone’s problem.”
In conclusion, making good use of the Johns Hopkins Univsersity’s data, we need to have governmental bodies willing to cooperate and share material in an open source way. Let’s listen to experts, share resources, and let machine learning help us contain this outbreak.